Farmgate values solid in New Zealand and Australia

17th June 2025

In New Zealand, farmgate values (FGV) for the standard large loose round tomato are pushing into the $7–$8/kg range this week — a significant jump. Meanwhile, retail prices have soared, with some stores charging as much as $14.99/kg for loose rounds as of Monday.

Over the ditch, growers in Australia are reportedly seeing FGV returns as high as $10 AUD/kg, while retail prices there are around $12.50 AUD/kg (as of June 16).

What’s behind the sharp rise in Australia? The precise cause is unclear, but potential culprits include the ToBRFV (Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus) outbreak in Victoria and possible weather disruptions affecting winter supply out of Queensland.

What This Means for New Zealand

Ordinarily, when domestic supply tightens and prices soar, importers turn to Australia to fill the gap. But that’s off the table — at least for now.

MPI currently has a temporary ban on Australian tomato imports due to the ToBRFV outbreak. Even if the ban were lifted, Australia’s high FGVs make imports economically unviable for the NZ market — or so we hope.

📉 A Supply Mystery in NZ

How much local supply is available? That’s anyone’s guess. Due to industry rules, growers can’t legally share production schedule data. However, we can make some educated predictions.

It’s likely that planting schedules haven’t shifted much year-on-year, but soaring energy costs have pushed many growers — especially smaller operations — to cut back on heating. These decisions are often reactive, driven by low returns earlier in the season. By the time prices rise, it’s often too late to recover.

Growers who stick to a consistent production and energy strategy are now in the best position to benefit from the current price surge.

🦠 PepMV and the Winter Crop

The other wildcard this season is Pepino Mosaic Virus (PepMV). It’s too early to know the full impact, but early indications suggest it could reduce yield and quality in winter crops. Any hit to supply will further strain the market — and likely keep prices firm.

📈 FGV Outlook: Strong Through October?

I won’t sit on the fence — I believe prices will remain strong through to October, driven by constrained supply and increased input costs. Where exactly the FGV lands week to week remains uncertain, but the trend is upward.

⚠️ Quality Concerns

Consumers might be paying premium prices — but that doesn’t always mean premium quality. In one major retail chain this week, I observed loose round tomatoes that were, at best, tag 2. There were visible issues like skin damage and mottling, likely caused by cold, wet weather, reduced humidity control, and minimal fungicide protection.

That said, not all growers are in the same boat — I visited one on Friday who had exceptional fruit quality, showing what’s possible even in tough conditions.

Image of product being retailed for $14.99kg earlier this week.  At best Tag 2 product in my opinion.

Final Word

The tomato market is heating up just as winter begins to bite. With uncertainty around viruses, weather, and energy costs — not to mention import restrictions — New Zealand’s tomato industry faces a complex and dynamic few months.

For growers who’ve held the line on quality and consistency, this may be the season to shine.