Energy prices fall substantially but is it a short-term blimp?  Is this due to the Methanex shutdowns?

Below – current ‘spot price’ of Natural Gas!

Ems Tradepoint Market Wrap for week ending 1^st September 2024:

Carbon Market: (NZU)

• Another good week for the carbon price, pushing through and holding above $60 on good trading volume, finishing the week at $62.00.
• Traded range of $58.00 – $62.00, finishing up 3.30% on the previous week and up 21.6% for the month of August.
• Next NZX Carbon Auction is on Wednesday 4^th September, with a floor of $64, that might be a step to far for this week. (NZX Managed Auction Service (etsauctions.govt.nz)
• European carbon prices posted a daily and weekly loss on Friday, recording their narrowest weekly trading range of the year as a stable morning session was followed by gradually heavier selling throughout the afternoon, culminating in a three-week low, while UK Allowances returned their second 8% five-day gain in the last three weeks.
• Friday’s close was 69.20 Euro ($122 NZD approx.)

Gas Market: (GJ)

• What a difference 2 weeks make, trading range of $8.00 – $18.00. Last Friday was a very busy day for gas, with a frenzy Broker trades in daily, weekly and monthly products.
• Traded VWAP $10.89 ($/GJ), down 64.80% and delivered VWAP $14.48 ($/GJ), down 54.00% from previous week.
• Gas generation fell to 9.50% of the electricity generation mix last week on the back of good inflows into Southern catchment areas and plenty of wind generation.
• High Linepack this morning has seen the Systen Operator (First Gas) selling gas down to 0.01 cents/GJ (reflected in the NZ Regional Price overview ($/MWh))
• https://app.em6.co.nz/
• As of this morning, hydro storage was 68% of average, Manapouri 90% full (versus 61% a week ago), Pukaki at 22% (vs 17%) and Tekapo at 43% (vs 34%) and Taupo 36% full (vs 22%). Metservice reporting a wet start for the week in Otago and Southland with a heavy rain watch in place.
• September 2024 baseload futures pulled back again for both Islands, $155/MWh for OTA and $150/M/Wh for BEN.
• Average electricity prices fell like a stone last week, North Island falling 69% to $100 ($/MW/h) and South Island was also down 69% to $103 ($/MW/h).

Source  www.emstradepoint.co.nz

For any comment e-mail stefan@grower2grower.co.nz